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Currency

Dollar Cycle

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Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker

on Thursday, 16 February 2017 07:16

The dollar is possibly completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. Overnight price completed a swing high suggesting a decent possibility the daily cycle has topped. Several scenarios for the dollar’s future price movement are discussed, as well as the implications for price performance of gold related investments:

....also: Stock Trading Alert: New Record Highs As Bull Run Continues - Can It Get Even Higher?

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 7.56.49 AM



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Currency

Something Rotten in the State of Russia?

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Posted by George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro

on Tuesday, 14 February 2017 06:59

Geopolitical Futures’ forecast for 2017 says the following: “In hindsight, the coming year will be an inflection point in the long-term destabilization of Russia that we predict will reach a boiling point by 2040.” This may seem counterintuitive in light of the Russia hysteria following the US presidential election. Yet in the first six weeks of 2017, it is already possible to observe indicators that this forecast is on track.

These indicators fall roughly into four separate categories of instability: the distribution and prevalence of wage arrears, pressure on the Russian banking system, low-level social and economic unrest, and government purges. The map below summarizes these developments.

Image 1 20170213 TWIG
Click to enlarge.

Show Me the Money

The bottom part of the Russia map shows wage arrears as reported by region. “Wage arrears” is a fancy term for workers not being paid. In December 2016 (the last month for which Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service has data), total wage arrears amounted to 2.7 billion rubles (roughly $46.4 million in USD).

The regions with the largest wage arrears can be divided into two categories. The first is port regions. Primorsky region, whose capital Vladivostok is Russia’s largest port on the Pacific, has by far the worst incidence of wage arrears. It accounts for 21.2% of the country’s total. The area where it is the second most prevalent is Siberia (in places like Irkutsk and Novosibirsk).

 



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Currency

China Looking to Regulate Gold & Bitcoin

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 10 February 2017 06:29

CHINA-M-2-9-2017-600x442

bitcoin-300x200China has called all Bitcoin exchanges to a closed door meeting looking to shut down the flight of capital from China. China is looking to deal with the expected trade confrontation with Trump and looking to shut down the flow of capital that has been putting a downward pressure on their currency. We can see that the US dollar has risen for 35 months and this will be seen as a currency war by Trump for his advisers from Goldman Sachs are clueless assuming markets can simply be bullied or manipulated with power.

Our sources are also hinting China may tighten the quotas on importing gold even more since their actions last November (see FT). China is trying to curb the flight of capital which has contributed to the greenback’s rise for 35 months. However, with Europe tottering on the edge, the next country to withdraw from the EU may set off a collapse of the euro and that will only cause a surge higher yet in the dollar impacting China negatively with regard to trade disputes.

....also from Martin: 


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Currency

U.S. Exorbitant Privilege At Risk?!

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Posted by Axel Merk - Merk Investments LLC

on Wednesday, 08 February 2017 06:38

If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, American’s exorbitant privilege might be at risk with broad implications for the U.S. dollar and investors’ portfolios. Let me explain.

2013-09-09-in-debt-we-trust

The U.S. was the anchor of the Bretton Woods agreement that collapsed when former President Nixon ended the dollar’s convertibility into gold in 1971. Yet even when off the remnants of the gold standard, the U.S. has continued to be the currency in which many countries hold their foreign reserves. Why is that, what are the benefits and what are the implications if this were under threat?



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Currency

US Dollar Bulls Surrender ?

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Posted by Rambus Chartology

on Monday, 06 February 2017 06:56

The US dollar has now closed lower for 6 weeks in a row which is testing the patience of the bulls. This week the price action cracked the top rail of the horizontal trading range which is a negative, but not confirmation yet the trend has reversed down. There are several more layers of support that will need to be hit before I throw up the white flag and surrender to the bears.

This first chart is just a simple daily line chart which shows the US dollar closed just below the top rail today (friday) at 99.84.

US-DOLLAR-DAY-LINE

.... for more analysis and larger charts go HERE



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