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Currency

CHINA, GOLD and the US DOLLAR...

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Posted by Clive P. Maund

on Thursday, 17 August 2017 06:29

This article is not politically motivated – the writer has no political agenda or affiliation – and the motivation for producing it is to enable you to understand the pivotal role that gold will play in thwarting the Empire’s imperialist ambitions, and how this means that the price of gold – and silver – will skyrocket, and sooner than many think possible. When you know that this is set to happen, and you understand the key reasons why, you will be able to position yourself to profit greatly from this profound and seismic global shift.

....continue reading HERE



Currency

Governments to Control Large Cash Transactions

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 16 August 2017 07:46

Wolfgang Schaeuble 1-15-2016

I have been pointing out the crisis we face moving forward. The gist of this is the total fiscal mismanagement of government for which we, the people, are always blamed. This hunt for taxes has led down the path of arguments for eliminating currency. While people think Bitcoin is an answer, they do not understand government’s hunt for taxes no less the lack of a true rule of law. The government need only pass a law that anyone who fails to report what they have in Bitcoin is criminal and they get to confiscate all your assets.

Switzerland has its “wealth tax” which they argue is nothing just 0.02%. However, it requires you to report all assets worldwide. They then know precisely what you have and it is merely one vote away at anytime to raise the tax or impose criminal penalties for failure to report everything. Yet, once Switzerland has that info, under G20 they must share it with all other governments.

We have stood by and watched India cancel all high denomination notes. Try walking around with €500 notes in Europe and they look at you funny or won’t accept them. ATM machines have been reduced in Europe to taking a maximum of €200 in cash at best. This is all th hunt for taxes because government cannot function ethically no less morally.

Now the German Federal Minister of Finance, Wolfgang Schäuble, is proposing to control all large cash transactions claiming this will prevent black money transactions and money laundering. Of course, they see these two issues not as typical crime like drugs, but tax avoidance.



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Currency

Gold Versus The Yen

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 11:45

Aug 15, 2017

  1. For gold to perform well against the US dollar, it needs to perform well against the Japanese yen.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. 
  3. Since 2011 gold has traded sideways against the yen. Since 2013 it has been coiling in a very positive symmetrical triangle pattern.
  4. An upside breakout would usher in a major move higher for gold against both the yen and the dollar.
  5. Since 2013, the Indian market has been dealing with major duty, import rule, and hallmarking issues. The process has weighed on demand since 2012.
  6. India’s gold market has undergone an enormous restructuring in response to these issues. The good news is that the restructuring is essentially complete now. 
  7. That paves the way for higher imports on a much more consistent basis.
  8. China has made significant progress in tying gold price discovery more to physical demand versus supply.
  9. Trump has also had major success in pushing the dollar lower against most of the world’s currencies.
  10. These are not just one-time events. Events like tension in Korea can move gold $20 - $50 in a short period of time. A $100 - $200 move is possible if the tension intensifies (which it hasn’t).
  11. Unfortunately, these gains are no more sustainable than the gains from the 1980 Russian invasion of Afghanistan were sustainable.
  12. When the tension subsides, all the gains from these one-time events tends to be lost. 
  13. To move $1000 higher or more, gold needs to see a quasi-permanent ramp-up in the physical market demand against static or limited supply growth, and that’s happening right here, right now.
  14. Trump’s actions on the dollar are a long-term process. He is now beginning a trade war with China. From a gold price discovery perspective, this is vastly more important than tension involving Korea.
  15. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this gold chart.


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Currency

Forecasting, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Wednesday, 09 August 2017 10:23

Quotable

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. " Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC

Commentary & Analysis

Forecasting, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

Screen Shot 2017-08-09 at 9.44.54 AM

I shared this seemingly simple equation with you recently; and today I would like to add a few comments and delve deeper:

The currency equation of expected total return:

Screen Shot 2017-08-09 at 9.46.14 AM

This equation says the primary rationale for holding a particular currency is to maximize total return, and expected total return is a function of the real yield achieved (nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate) and the future exchange rate (that which we are trying to forecast).

Do rising real yields cause the exchange rate to rise ... or is it a rising exchange rate, impacting the fundamentals, which leads to rising yields?



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Currency

USD Daily & Monthly

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Tuesday, 08 August 2017 06:19

Since I am hanging out there with a view on USD that goes against all current trends (up in the anti-USD trade and down in Uncle Buck), may as well micro-manage it until resolved.

Daily USD is in its 2nd day of flagging after breaking the harsh downtrend channel, post-jobs.

usd1-1

....continue for more charts and analysis HERE

...also from NFTRH:

Participation from the S&P 500’s ‘equal weight’ components is thinning out markedly after putting on a mini-surge in June.

....continue reading HERE



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