What are the classic signs of an asset bubble? People piling into an asset class to such an extent that it becomes unprofitable to do so.
Treasury bonds are so overbought that they are now producing negative real yields (yield minus inflation):
That’s right, after taking into account inflation, many investors in treasuries are standing over a drain and pouring their money down it.
And so America’s creditors are now getting slapped quite heavily in the mouth by the Fed’s easy money inflationist policies.
I propose (much, I am sure, to the consternation of the monetarist-Keynesian “print money and watch your problems evaporate” establishment) that this is a very, very, very dangerous position. And I propose that those economists who are calling for even greater inflation are playing with dynamite.
See, while the establishment seems to largely believe that the negative return on treasuries will juice up the American economy — in other words that “hoarders” will stop hoarding and start spending — I believe that negative side-effects from these policies may cause severe harm.
There is the danger of a bursting treasury bubble. What would happen if America’s creditors decide they want to liquidate their positions? After all, they’re getting slapped in the mouth , and the Fed is promising to continue with the zero interest rate policy until at least 2014.
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