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Bonds & Interest Rates

Marc Faber: Central Bankers Desperate to Keep Colossal Global Debt Bubble Inflated

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Reportrt

on Monday, 10 April 2017 16:44

During this 25+ minute interview, Marc is asked if he thinks the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates 2-3 times more in 2017? Marc thinks the Fed will only raise rates once more in 2017 before the next global financial crisis. He thinks the Federal Reserve will reverse course, start lowering interest rates again and do a large QE program. 

Marc thinks global central bankers are routinely coordinating monetary and interest rate policy as well as exchange rates with each other to prevent a "colossal debt bubble" from bursting. 

Jason and Marc also discuss whether the Fed can hurt Trump's spending programs. Marc thinks Trump will need the Fed's help to fund his spending programs. 

Jason and Marc also discuss current stock market valuations compared to past stock market crashes, whether China will need to devalue the RMB another 20-30% like Kyle Bass predicts, whether bonds are now in a bear market, how people should be diversified, and how President Trump will pay for all of his spending programs.

 

...also: Marc Faber: Emerging Markets Outperforming The US Despite Trump Rally

faber loser

 



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Are Rising Rates Bad for Stocks? Not According to History

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Posted by Mike Burnick via MoneyandMarkets

on Wednesday, 05 April 2017 07:07

There are plenty of things that can keep investors up at night worrying about what could derail the stock market. Rising interest rates should not be one of them.

I get a ton of mailbag questions these days asking whether the Fed will get too aggressive with hiking rates, eventually killing the eight-year bull market in stocks.

The implication is: When rates go up, stocks must go down. 

Everyone’s heard this so often it’s accepted as truth. In fact, not a day goes by when I don’t overhear some talking head on CNBC touting this nonsense.

Don’t believe it, because it’s pure baloney.

Last week, I updated you about where we are right now in the big-picture cycle analysis that Larry Edelson pioneered and passed on to us as his legacy. As he correctly forewarned, all the major economic cycles point in unison: A supercycle convergence of historic proportions.

Besides his ardent study of cycles, Larry was also a keen student of history. And he constantly applied historical analysis to his market forecasts. Correctly identifying historical market patterns, sometimes long forgotten, but destined to repeat.

The upshot? During turbulent periods like this, markets could behave exactly the opposite of what you would expect. You simply can’t afford to rely on old myths about how the markets should behave.

The single biggest myth gaining traction right now is 
about interest rates and stock prices.

Everyone seems to believe that when yields move up, stocks will tumble – but that’s total hogwash – nothing could be further from the truth.

Historically most bull markets in equities occur with rising interest rates, not falling rates. Conversely, most bear markets in stocks happen alongside declining interest rates.  It is exactly the opposite of what you hear.

Just look at recent history: The Fed has raised interest rates three times since December 2015, and promises more to come, yet stocks are up nearly 15% since the first rate hike.

Want more proof? Let’s take a look at one of the greatest secular bull markets in history: The 1950s and ’60s! Take a look at the charts below and you’ll see what I mean.


chart1s 
Click image for larger view



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Bond Market Doom: Key Tactics

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 31 March 2017 09:40

Here are today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):
  

Big Picture Key Charts & Video Analysis

acrude oil hammers



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Warning for Trump: Revenge of the Government Debt Monster

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Posted by Martin D. Weiss PH.D

on Monday, 27 March 2017 06:31

Screen-Shot-2017-03-17-at-7.19.51-PMWhile Washington is buried in bungled health care reform and Wall Street is vexed about possibly jinxed tax reform, both seem to have lost sight of the one, giant, intractable monster in the economy that virtually no one talks about any more: Debt.

They seem to forget that excess debt was the repeat offender behind the bank failures of the 1980s, the subprime mortgage disaster of 2007, the global market meltdowns of 2008, the Great Recession of 2009 and the multiple European debt crises of 2008-2015.

Worse, they seem to ignore the fact that the last 7.5 years of near-zero interest rates and unbridled money printing have only encouraged still more debt pile-ups. “Money is dirt cheap, so why not?” say officials in Congress, the White House, the Treasury Department, and government agencies.

“As long as the government’s debt burden is under 100% of GDP,” they tell you, “we can handle it. It’s only when it surpasses the 100% threshold that we’ll be in danger.”

True or false? Let’s look at the numbers …



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Technically Speaking: “Fuhgettaboutit”

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Posted by Technically Speaking via Lance Roberts

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 08:57

“Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities.

In last week’s post, I did a complete sector and major market review. Not much has changed in the past week given the very quiet activity that has persisted. This lack of volatility, while not unprecedented, is extremely long in duration as noted in past weekend’s newsletter, “An Unexpected Outcome:” 

“Speaking of low volatility, the market has now gone 108-trading days without a drop of 1% for both the Dow and the S&P 500. This is the longest stretch since September of 1993 for the Dow and December of 1995 for the S&P 500.”

The issue becomes, of course, which way the market breaks when volatility returns to the market. Over the course of the last three years, in particular, those breaks have been to the downside as shown below.

SP500-MarketUpdate-032017

...continue reading HERE

...also, Michael's Interview with Lance Roberts March 18th:

Bonds & Stocks: Looking Good With One Possible Exception



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