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Bonds & Interest Rates

The Inside Scoop On What's Going On At The Fed On What's Going On At The Fed

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Posted by Michael Campbell & Dr. Michael Berry PhDBerry PhD

on Monday, 29 May 2017 08:08

Dr. Michael Berry is the go-to guest when it comes to parsing the tea leaves of the central banks, the US Federal Reserve which has singularly  the largest impact on interest rates, stock markets & commodity pricing.

....also: When People Pay No Price For Being Wrong

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Bonds & Interest Rates

Interest Rates Up & Bonds Up?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 26 May 2017 06:18

UBCBT30-M-5-25-2017

While the Fed may be raising rates, there is still a flight to quality underway that is giving a bid to US Treasury issues. Low Treasury yields may remain the norm even if the Federal Reserve raises rates again. At about 2.25%, 10-year yields have dropped to 2017 lows, even with the central bank signaling an imminent rate hike. Many still see the stock market crash and that also supplies a bit of an underlying bid right now. However, The Fed has also made it clear it will maintain a gradual approach to shrinking its massive bond portfolio thereby reversing the Quantitative Easing. We are in never-never-land where the Fed tightening will not yet have a direct impact upon the bonds on a one-for-one relationship.

....continue reading and view 3 more charts

....related from Martin:

US Pension Crisis Picking Up Full Speed

 



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Markets Should Fear Central Banks More Than Trump

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Posted by Michael Pento - Pento Portfolio Strategies

on Tuesday, 23 May 2017 08:18

trump-trade-crash-768241Trump’s economic agenda has become further delayed by what seems like daily leaks from the White House. This may finally bring about the long-awaited equity market pullback of at least 5 percent. However, what will prove to be far more troubling than Trump’s ongoing feuds with the DOJ and the press, is the upcoming market collapse due to the removal of the bids from global central banks.

The markets have been feeding off artificial interest rates from our Federal Reserve and that of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan for years. In addition, the global economy has been stimulated further by a tremendous amount of new debt generated from China that was underwritten by the PBOC. After it reached the saturation point of empty cities, China is now building out its “Belt and Road Initiative” that could add trillions of dollars to the debt-fueled stimulus scheme that has been spewed out over the world-wide economy.



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Bonds & Interest Rates

How to Drink from a Firehose

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Posted by John Mauldin - Mauldin EconomicsMauldin Economics

on Monday, 15 May 2017 07:20

Rosengren & Carney
Draghi Heckled
Treasury Hat Trick
Stop Drinking Now
A Brief Commercial
Orlando, Washington DC, St. Thomas, and SIC 2017

Basic economics tells us all resources are scarce, but our demand for them is not. Hence we need methods to allocate the limited supply of each resource. A significant part of economics is the study of those methods.

One exception to the rule, though, has developed in the last few years: The amount of information available to us is practically unlimited. Open your internet browser, and most of that information is just a few clicks way. But if media industry profits (or lack of them) are any indication, demand for that information is anything but infinite.

One problem with information is that much of it is biased. I know, for instance, that when I read a certain economist commenting on recent data, he is going to put a spin on it that reflects the particular economic soapbox he prefers to stand upon. And while I will occasionally take time to read such people, just to kind of keep up on “influencers,” they often don’t really add much to the conversation.

Then there are those who are always delivering fascinating surprises. They do enormously deep dives into arcane data and tease out insights of real importance – connections to other ideas or solutions to challenging problems – they come up with new and different way of looking at the world. I don’t know what you call them, but “seekers of truth” is how I label them. They are just as curious as I am about how the Grand Puzzle all fits together, and they are describing the pieces as viewed from the another side of the table. I value these thinkers. (Sitting here thinking about it, I realize that I need to put a list together of some of my best resources. Some of them are expensive to access; but, surprisingly, more and more of them are either cheap or free. I will get around to that project and make it available to you one day.)

Back to the main plot line. What is scarce isn’t information itself (we’re all nearly drowning in it) but the ability to process it into something useful. All of us, including me, are still figuring out that part. And the creation of really valuable information takes time. I have had a vivid demonstration of that fact myself these last few weeks as I try to launch a new business andprepare for the upcoming Strategic Investment Conference. You cannot believe how much personal preparation goes into talking with every one of the speakers and figuring out how to blend their ideas so that something coherent emerges from our shared experiences at the conference.

And then there are the challenges of keeping up with my regular writing and research andputting in the many hours it takes to be a dad and granddad, always in the middle of a crisis or two. Life is what actually happens after you make careful plans.

170514-01

My own particular approach to drinking from the enormous information firehose has a couple of key features.



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Treasury Snapshot: Possible Reversal Continues

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Friday, 12 May 2017 07:26

325468e9f0a86c06889bf76c4ba384b1

Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.39% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.02%, well off their interim highs.

Here is a table showing the yields highs and lows and the FFR since 2007 as of today's close.

The 2-10 yield spread is now at 1.06%.

The chart below shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since the pre-recession days of equity market peaks in 2007.

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....continue reading HERE



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