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Bonds & Interest Rates

Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Tuesday, 20 June 2017 06:25

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of Friday's close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oil Embargo was finally ended after Paul Volcker raised the FFR to 20.06%.

Last year was a remarkable one for yields. The 10-year note hit its historic closing low of 1.37% in July and then rose 123 BPs to its 2016 closing high of 2.60% in mid-December. The yield on the 10-year note to date has dropped to 2.16% as of Friday's close.

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....read more HERE

 



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Bonds and Related Indicators (and more macro discussion)

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Monday, 19 June 2017 07:16

The target for TLT continues to be around 129. Treasury bonds are in bull trends (remember back a few months ago to all the bond hatred in the media). How does an eventual decline in bonds square with what we just noted above regarding Q4 2008? [work done in the preceding Precious Metals segment] Treasury bonds were a wonderfully bullish asset during Armageddon ’08 and who’s to say that an upside blow off may not be coming sooner rather than later amid massively over bullish sentiment? I mean, there is certainly no stop sign at our 129 target. Sentiment, as we are all too aware, can take a long while to manifest in pricing.

b-tlt

And that sentiment (and CoT) data are still pointing to a bearish bond future. Public optimism is still extremely over bullish on the 10yr bond.



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Falling Rocks in the Promised Land

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 16 June 2017 06:58

Screen Shot 2017-06-16 at 6.56.50 AM

Yes, traumatic market events (falling rocks) occur, even though markets are “managed,” statistics are manipulated, and politicians pretend to care about something besides their next election.

From John P. Hussman, Ph.D. Fair Value and Bubbles: 2017 Edition

“Unfortunately, investors seem to have concluded that central bank easing is omnipotent, despite the fact that the Fed eased persistently and aggressively, to no effect, through the entire course of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 market collapses.”

From Bill Gross: Bill Gross Says Market Risk is Highest Since Pre-2008 Crisis



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Bill Gross: Fed won't be able to follow through with its plans

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Posted by Bill Gross via CNBC

on Thursday, 15 June 2017 06:22

  • Screen Shot 2017-06-15 at 6.56.48 AMThe Fed released a hawkish statement on Wednesday, but it's doubtful the central bank will ultimately be able to reach its goal, Bill Gross told CNBC.
  • The Fed is maintaining its projection for a federal funds rate at 2.1 percent in 2018, according to the chart that has become known as the "dot plot."
  • He thinks the fed funds rate can go no higher than 1.5 to 1.75 percent over time given current economic conditions.

The Federal Reserve released a hawkish statement on Wednesday, but it's doubtful the central bank will ultimately be able to reach its goal, noted bond investor Bill Gross told CNBC on Wednesday.

...continue reading HERE

...also from Bill:

Bill Gross warns U.S. market risk is at highest since 2008 crisis



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Treasury Snapshot: Possible Reversal Continues

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Wednesday, 14 June 2017 09:12


Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.21% and the 30-year bond closed at 2.86%, well off their interim highs.

Here is a table showing the yields highs and lows and the FFR since 2007 as of today's close.

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The 2-10 yield spread is now at 0.86%.

The chart below shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since the pre-recession days of equity market peaks in 2007.

Treasury Yields since 2007

A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Note Yield

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965, starting well before the 1973 Oil Embargo that triggered the era of "stagflation" (economic stagnation with inflation). The trendline (the red one) connects the interim highs following those stagflationary years. The red line starts with the 1987 closing high on the Friday before the notorious Black Monday market crash. The S&P 500 fell 5.16% that Friday and 20.47% on Black Monday.

...continue HERE to view chart & commentary

 



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