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Bonds & Interest Rates

The Fed: End of an Era

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Posted by Doug Noland

on Monday, 06 November 2017 06:29

171031131148-video-card-jerome-powell-1024x576"The Federal Reserve is soon under the command of a conventional and non-ideological individual with a distinguished career in the public and private sectors."

Of the diverse strains of inflation, asset inflation is by far the most dangerous. A bout of consumer price inflation would be generally recognized as problematic and rectified through a tightening of monetary conditions. On the other hand, asset price inflation is both celebrated and venerated. There is simply no constituency calling for a tightening of conditions to ward off the deleterious effects of rising asset prices, Bubbles and attendant economic maladjustment. And as we've witnessed, the bigger the Bubble the more powerful the constituencies that rationalize, justify and promote Bubble excess.

About one year ago, I was expecting a securities markets sell-off in the event of an unexpected Donald Trump win. A Trump presidency would create disruption, upheaval and major uncertainties - political, geopolitical, economic and social. Instead of a fall, the markets experienced a short squeeze and unwind of hedges. Over-liquefied markets and a powerful inflationary bias throughout global securities markets won the day - and the winning runs unabated.

We've come a long way since 1992 and James Carville's "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." New age central banking has pacified bond markets and eradicated the vigilantes. These days it's the great equities bull market as all-powerful intimidator.



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Bond Yields: Testing Time & The Big Macro Play Ahead

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Posted by NFTRH

on Tuesday, 31 October 2017 06:20

The breakouts above resistance are now being tested in 10 & 30 year bond yields. Though it’s broken through the zone I drew, the 10yr is still regarded as testing.

tnx5

The 30yr is looking more iffy, but these are the financial markets and they are under no obligation to give us nice, clean parameters. Still, below the SMA 200 this one can be considered under threat.



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Bonds & Interest Rates

Hotel California and the Federal Reserve

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Thursday, 12 October 2017 06:46

hotel-californiaIn 1977 the Eagles spoke to us about “Hotel California.” Lyrics are here.

A few lines from the song …

“On a dark desert highway, cool wind in my hair…

Up ahead in the distance I saw a shimmering light…

Then I was thinking to myself this could be Heaven or this could be Hell

Welcome to the Hotel California

Some dance to remember, some dance to forget

They’re living it up at the Hotel California

We are all just prisoners here of our own device

Relax, said the night man, We are programmed to receive,

You can check out any time you like but you can never leave.”

The lines have been rewritten to fit the Federal Reserve – the hypothetical “Hotel Marriner Eccles:”



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Bonds & Interest Rates

The True Danger Ahead

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Posted by The Macro Tourist

on Monday, 09 October 2017 06:57

20171003-correlated-1It’s easy for me to sit back and take pot shots at the hedge fund gurus calling for a repeat of the 2008 crash. Spouting words about markets never repeating the previous crisis is kind of cheap. If I am so sure history won’t repeat, why don’t I offer an alternative theory?

Well, at the risk of embarrassing myself, here it goes.

The biggest risk out there is not credit. It is not the monster short VIX speculative position. It is not CDX leverage.

The true DANGER AHEAD lies in the universal belief that treasuries (and other sovereign fixed income) offer a perfect hedge versus risk assets.

....continue reading HERE



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Bonds & Interest Rates

In Marketing and in Markets, Don't be the Mark!

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Monday, 25 September 2017 06:55

I have made countless posts lampooning the mainstream media and its eyeball harvesting, click baiting content. This content and especially the associated headlines (let’s recall the classic R.I.P. Bond Bull Market as Charts Say Last Gasps Have Been Taken, dated Dec. 2016 as but one example) are designed to whip up emotions, draw attention and thereby gain traffic and ad dollars (diminishing though they are these days). nftrh.com is and always will be ad-free, by the way.

So sure, the bond bull market may well have ended in the Brexit and NIRP dominated summer of anxiety (in fact I believe it did), but any good contrarian would have seen the trade setup to go bearish on bonds in the middle of that hysteria, not a half a year later when Bloomberg used Louis Yamada’s chart to make a big headline. From a post in June 2016 about the Silver/Gold ratio and the prospects for a future ‘inflation trade’ right at the height of the bond bull…

“All of this as the world sits in Treasury bonds and global NIRP garbage. Perfect. More and more it is looking like Brexit may have been an exclamation point.”

ust

We later were compelled to do a 180° on that analysis after Trump mania drove ‘reflation’ expectations too high, aided by the likes of this sentiment setup (mark ups mine on a graphic courtesy of Sentimentrader) against bonds. This was not so surprisingly right around the time of the “R.I.P. Bond Bull Market” headline stated the obvious. Bonds have risen ever since.



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