Bonds & Interest Rates

Treasury Snapshot: Possible Reversal Continues

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Friday, 12 May 2017 07:26


Let's take a closer look at recent activity in US Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.39% and the 30-year bond closed at 3.02%, well off their interim highs.

Here is a table showing the yields highs and lows and the FFR since 2007 as of today's close.

The 2-10 yield spread is now at 1.06%.

The chart below shows the daily performance of several Treasuries and the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) since the pre-recession days of equity market peaks in 2007.


....continue reading HERE


Bonds & Interest Rates

Shocker: Next Sovereign Debt Crisis Four Times Worse

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Posted by Martin D. Weiss PH.D

on Wednesday, 10 May 2017 07:51

debt-crises-1024x507Many people don’t recognize the true value of an individual’s contribution to society until he or she is gone.

That’s not quite the case with our colleague, Larry Edelson. He did have a large, loyal following before he passed away. But it still applies to him in this sense: The Edelson Institute he founded now has an even larger group of devoted fans than he had.

I’m among them. And as I dig more deeply into his big-picture forecasts, I uncover even stronger evidence that supports them.

A classic example: Larry’s prediction of the coming sovereign debt crisis. Repeatedly and consistently, he told us how it would strike in three distinct phases — first hitting the European Union, then Japan, and finally the United States.

He explained how it would corrode society, corrupt politics, and raise the risk of war. Plus, he predicted what’s widely known today as the global money tsunami, the tidal wave of flight capital flowing into U.S. markets.

Now, the Edelson scenario is unfolding in aces and spades. 



Bonds & Interest Rates

Debt is Financial Life – Nonsense!

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Thursday, 04 May 2017 07:46

Examine the picture below. The global economy thrives on debt and credit. We purchase essential products using debt/credit. The U.S. dollar bill is a debt of the Federal Reserve. All debt based assets have counter-party risk.

The St. Louis Federal Reserve publishes data on “Total Debt Securities” in $ millions. Note the rapid rise since 1971 after President Nixon encouraged rapid devaluation of the dollar.


Yes, the total U.S. increases debt rapidly – about 9% per year on average since 1971. A graph of U.S. national debt looks similar and shows about the same rate of increase.

Gold bullion and coins are NOT debt and have no counter-party risk, in contrast to debt based assets. But who cares about gold?


  • Central banks profess little interest in gold, although they own a substantial quantity.
  • Wall Street makes little profit from gold – no interest there.
  • The middle class struggles to pay debts and shows little awareness of gold. (A change in attitude is coming!)


How does increasing debt affect us?



Bonds & Interest Rates

Panic Bank Run Leaves Canada's Largest Alternative Mortgage Lender On Edge Of Collapse

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Posted by Zerohedge

on Monday, 01 May 2017 07:59

After two years of recurring warnings (both on this website and elsewhere) that Canada's largest alternative (i.e., non-bank) mortgage lender is fundamentally insolvent, kept alive only courtesy of the Canadian housing bubble which until last week had managed to lift all boats, Home Capital Group suffered a spectacular spectacular implosion last week when its stock price crashed by the most on record after HCG revealed that it had taken out an emergency $2 billion line of credit from an unnamed counterparty with an effective rate as high as 22.5%, indicative of a business model on the verge of collapse .

Or, as we put it, Canada just experienced its very own "New Century" moment.

HCG teaser 0

...read more HERE


Bonds & Interest Rates

This Is What Behavioral Finance Is All About

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Posted by Jared Dillian - Mauldin Economics

on Thursday, 27 April 2017 08:10

I live for this.

Check out this poll I ran on Twitter:


Le Pen is about a 10-to-1 dog. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that thinking she is going to win is contrarian.


So the markets are pricing in a 10% (or less) chance of a Le Pen win, and yet everyone thinks she is going to win.

How the hell do you explain that?

Recency Bias



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