This analysis gives you the current position and expected future trend of Gold, the S&P500 and Gold stocks as represented by the GDX, a Gold Miners ETF which tracks the overall performance of companies involved in the gold mining industry.
The method of analysis used is the Ellliottwave theory, which measures the waves and cycles of individual markets or stocks. As Martin Armstrong says, everything is cycles, so this is a very good method of analysis invented by Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871–1948) and practiced by many including Jack Crooks to forecast movements. It is a complicated system, but fortunately this analyst does the work. The forecasts are fascinating. - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks:
Short Term Update:
While we sold off a bit last night, the big picture on the daily chart is that wave ^ii^ is complete at the 1309.00 low and we now expect to rally sharply in wave ^iii^.
Our first projection for the end of wave ^iii^ is: ^iii^ = 1.618^i^=1514.65.
We appear to have completed wave $i$ at 1364.40 and are now falling in wave $ii$. Our retracement levels for wave $ii$ are:
50% = 1336.70;
61.8% = 1330.20.
Upon completion of wave $ii$ we expect a sharp rally in wave $iii$ that should break above resistance at the 1365.00/1377.00 level.
Trading Recommendation: Long gold. Use puts as stops.
Active Positions: We are long, with puts as stops.
Short Term Update:
The S&P was higher in Friday’s day session reaching a high of 2754.42. In the overnight session the S&P Futures are down about 14 points.
Wave .i. is complete at the 2532.69 low and we are now rallying in wave .ii., which may now be complete at the 2754.72 high. If that is the case then we should be on guard for a very step drop in wave .iii., as being the next big event in this market. This drop, if our wave counts are correct, will be much larger that wave .i., and it will send this market below the red up trend line, as shown on the Daily S&P Chart.
Trading Recommendation: Short it with a stop at 2873.00
Active Positions: Very Short with calls at various levels as stops!
Short Term Update:
The GDX traded lower in Friday’s day session and is soft in today’s action. The bottom line:
Wave ii is complete at the 20.84 low, and our sharp wave iii rally is now underway.
Our first projection for the end of wave iii is :iii = 1.618i = 32.38.
We also expect that wave iii will turn into a 5 wave impulsive sequence, of which wave -i- of (i) of iii ended at 23.15 and we are now falling in wave -ii-. Our retracement levels for wave -ii- are:
50% = 22.00;
61.8% = 21.72.
Upon completion of wave -ii- we expect a very sharp rally in wave -iii-, to be the next big event in this market.
We provide updates for the gold stocks/indices below starting this week:
Barrick: Wave (ii) ended at the 12.60 low, which is the 61.8% retracement level., as shown on the Monthly Barrick Chart. We are now rallying in an explosive wave (iii), which has a projection of 41.68.
HUI: Wave ii likely ended at the 170.81 low, as shown on the Long Term HUI Chart. Wave iii higher should now be underway.
Trading Recommendation: Buy Barrick Stock, for a long term hold.
Active Positions: We are long the GDX, ABX, KGC, NEM, SSR, and TSX:XGD with no stops!!
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Captain Ewave & Crew!
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