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Asset protection

Marc Faber: The Gold Sector is Bottoming Out

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Reporteport

on Friday, 08 September 2017 07:21

 

If you ask me about the world, I think we had a very strong performance of technology and internet-related stocks, e-commerce and so forth. They had a super performance until recently. Now, more recently in the U.S., Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix are the kind of stocks that will not provide you a high return going forward. They will go down as they are quite vulnerable. First of all, there will be more international competition and secondly, the valuations are really high. When we look at sectors that have low valuations, I would say oil and oil-related stocks are relatively low. European stocks are relatively low compared to the U.S. Some Asian markets - Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam are relatively low compare to everything else, as well as Japan. Then we have the mining sector which had a horrific performance since 2011 and the speculators are now-a-days are no longer in gold, silver and platinum. They all migrated to cryptocurrencies. But the gold sector is bottoming out. It is a very different type of asset class to own physical gold than to own bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies. I think that this sector will come back, as well as the underlying shares.

King-World-News-Marc-Faber-Unveils-The-Biggest-Surprise-For-2015-And-The-Greatest-Danger-Facing-The-World-Today



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Asset protection

The Coming Run on Banks and Pensions

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Posted by Dave Kranzler - Investment Research Dynamics

on Thursday, 07 September 2017 07:14

Pension Grenade 16“There are folks that are saying you know what, I don’t care, I’m going to lock in my retirement now and get out while I can and fight it as a retiree if they go and change the retiree benefits,” he said.  – Executive Director for the Kentucky Association of State Employees,  Proposed Pension Changes Bring Fears Of State Worker Exodus

The public awareness of the degree to which State pension funds are underfunded has risen considerably over the past year.  It’s a problem that’s easy to hide as long as the economy is growing and State tax receipts grow.  It’s a catastrophe when the economic conditions deteriorate and tax revenue flattens or declines, as is occurring now.

The quote above references a report of a 20% jump in Kentucky State worker retirements in August after it was reported that a consulting group recommended that the State restructure its State pension system.   I personally know a teacher who left her job in order to cash completely out of her State employee pension account in Colorado (Colorado PERA).  She knows the truth.



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Asset protection

The Insanity in Korea – But Is it Logical?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 06 September 2017 07:47

Kim-Hydrogen-BombThe South China Post reported that Chinese scientists fear that a mountain in North Korea under which the last five bombs detonated as tests, may collapse crumbling into a crater. They fear that the radiation underground would then leak across region.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the escalating crisis concerning North Korea’s weapons program is placing the world at risk of developing into a “global catastrophe” with massive casualties. Putin has UNREALISTICALLY said that the only way to resolve the crisis was through diplomacy. For that to be even a possibility, it requires talking. Kim Jong Un has not even met with the leader of China – its once closet Allies.

Let’s put this is perspective. Why is Kim pushing the world to the brink? Kim Jong Un looks at this differently He believes that the survival of his regime depends on possessing nuclear weapons. He is most likely NOT interested in starting a nuclear war for he cannot be so stupid to believe he would win. Yet, Kim also realizes that the prospect of the USA sending a nuke to North Korea is also not likely for that would antagonize China and risk pollution drifting to South Korea and Japan, not to mention China. So with all the saber rattling, Kim is not stupid and realizes that the USA cannot launch a first strike.

Now, why is the goal of Kim? To be honest, Kim Jong Un does not trust the USA for from the outsider perspective, he has watched how American intervention in Iraq ended in the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, his execution as well as family members, and left the country ravaged by war and a puppet of Washington. Obviously, Kim has made the determination that had Saddam truly possessed nuclear power then the USA would never have intervened. This logic is understandable for it creates the stalemate between USA, China, and Russia. The USA invading Iraq, Afghanistan, and Syria with the objective of regime change creates the image that one must protect themselves and this is Kim’s perspective.

Sanctions will never work because Kim would starve his people before giving up his power. Also, as long as he appears to be strong, then there is little risk of an internal coup. If he backs down and appears weak, the prospect of being overthrown becomes probable from within.

...also from Martin: Market Talk- September 5th, 2017



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Asset protection

Eight Days to Destruction

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 01 September 2017 06:58

Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 Hurricane on August 25. The wind and flooding caused massive destruction. The news mentioned one hundred billion dollars as a preliminary estimate of the damage.

Eight days before on August 17 Harvey became a named storm. There was no apparent cause for alarm on August 17.

Two days later it was upgraded to a tropical depression. Harvey reached hurricane strength on August 24. Much can happen in eight days.

 

  • August 17: Harvey is named
  • August 21: Total eclipse of the sun. The path crossed the contiguous 48 states. Read “Total Eclipse of Sense.”
  • August 21: President Trump announces a revised and renewed war effort in Afghanistan.
  • August 25: Category 4 Harvey makes landfall, destroys buildings and dumps trillions of gallons of water on Texas. Houston, the 4th largest city in the U.S. flooded in many areas.

 

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MUCH CAN CHANGE IN 8 DAYS!

SO WHAT?



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Asset protection

The Coming CONTAGION – CDS Sales Double from 2016

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Thursday, 31 August 2017 06:24

Contagion-Vault

The issue of credit default swaps (CDS) in 2017 is running at twice that of last year reflecting rising concerns of another coming crash. The number of hedge funds and banks dealing with highly sensitive credit derivatives has reached almost $30 billion in 2017 up from only about $ 15 billion in 2016 and just $ 10 billion back in 2015. The credit default insurance, which is supposed to pay certain amount of money a particular company or government registers its insolvency. The trading in CDS was blamed by numerous observers for creating the financial crisis that became a widespread contagion in 2008 in particular. 

Hedge funds are now investing in these risky securities in order to achieve returns on the order of magnitude that are difficult to achieve in the current market environment due low interest rates. High-profile funds such as Apollo, Brigade Capital and Blue Mountain are among those who bought tranches with terms of 2-3 years, according to the FT. The real danger with this instruments is that the next crash will be far worse in the bond markets than at any time since 1931 and the prospects of actually being able to collect on these time-bombs is more unlikely since the entire system will freeze. The crisis is one stemming from liquidity and failure to understand the contagion will lead to significant losses. 

The pending view on the stock market remains extremely bearish among professional since their historical view is very myopic and their models rarely extend back before 1971. The was the entire reason Long-Term Capital Management collapsed and set off a crisis that became a contagion. Because they could not liquidate positions in Russian debt, they were forecast to start selling investments around the world to raise cash to cover losses in Russia. Therefore, you can have a great solid investment in an area unrelated to the bond crisis, yet that investment can tank regardless of the fundamentals.



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