Login

Straight Talk for Retirement Success Workshops

Generate solid risk-adjusted returns in rising markets, Integrate options and private assets into your portfolio, Protect your capital through the next financial crisis, & Legally minimize taxes before, during, and after retirement.

Click here to learn more about our
- FREE WORKSHOP -

Asset protection

Don't Get Ruined by These 10 Popular Investment Myths (Part VI)

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Elliott Wave International

on Tuesday, 14 October 2014 05:13

Interest rates, oil prices, earnings, GDP, wars, peace, terrorism, inflation, monetary policy, etc. -- NONE have a reliable effect on the stock market

You may remember that after the 2008-2009 crash, many called into question traditional economic models. Why did they fail?

And more importantly, will they warn us of a new approaching doomsday, should there be one?

This series gives you a well-researched answer. Here is Part VI; come back soon for Part VII.


Myth #6: "Wars are bullish/bearish for stocks."
By Robert Prechter (excerpted from the monthly Elliott Wave Theorist; published since 1979)

... If the stock market is not reflecting macroeconomic realities, what else could it possibly be doing? Well, how about political news? Maybe political events trump macroeconomic events.

It is common for economists to offer a forecast for the stock market yet add a caveat to the effect that "If a war shock or terrorist attack occurs, then I would have to modify my outlook."

For such statements to have any validity, there must be a relationship between war, peace and terrorist attacks on the one hand and the stock market on the other. Surely, since economists say these things, we can assume that they must have access to a study showing that such events affect the stock market, right?

The answer is no, for the same reason that they do not check relationships between interest rates, oil prices or the trade balance and the stock market. The causality just seems too sensible to doubt.

Claim #6: "Wars are bullish/bearish for stock prices."

Observe in the form of this claim that you have a choice for the outcome of the event. Economists have in fact argued both sides of this one. Some have held that war stimulates the economy, because the government spends money furiously and induces companies to gear up for production of war materials. Makes sense.

Others have argued that war hurts the economy because it diverts resources from productive enterprise, not to mention that is usually ends up destroying cities, factories and capital goods. Hmm; that makes sense, too.

I will not take sides here. We can negate both cases just by looking at a few charts.

Figure 11 shows a time of war when stock values rose, then fell.

35458 a

 



Read more...

Banner

Asset protection

“Unimaginable Consequences” for Hong Kong

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Martin Weiss PH.D - Money & Markets

on Sunday, 12 October 2014 14:17

Unimaginable consequences?

These are not my words. They’re the words of the People’s Daily, the leading voice of the Chinese Communist Party. And they’re not a forecast or a speculation.

They’re a thinly-veiled threat!

In a moment, I’ll explain what I think those consequences might be — for the world and for you. But first let me give you a sense of how important this is and why I’m qualified to opine.

Hong Kong is the biggest financial center of the largest, most populous, fastest growing continent on the planet — Asia.

Only two other centers eclipse Hong Kong in power and size — New York, the financial capital of the world’s dominant superpower; and London, the center of the greatest empire in history.

Hong Kong’s banking, stock market, bond market and derivatives market are bigger than those of Frankfurt (the largest financial center of continental Europe) and of Tokyo (despite a national GDP that’s 22 times larger).

Tens of thousands of corporations, operating all over Asia, are incorporated in Hong Kong.

Over 1,600 companies, half based in mainland China, are listed on the Hong Kong Exchange.

And no matter what, if you want to do business in Asia, you almost invariably must go through Hong Kong.

I know from personal experience.

Screen Shot 2014-10-12 at 1.58.18 PMIn the early 1980s, I was working in Tokyo as a stock analyst for Wako Sh?ken, one of Japan’s larger brokerage firms.

And soon after I began there, my boss sent me off to Hong Kong for a project with their local subsidiary.

My task was to develop presentations about Japanese stocks, while interpreting from Japanese to English and to Cantonese. (They overestimated my linguistic abilities.)

Even back then, business at their Hong Kong subsidiary was a big deal for them — bigger than their subsidiaries or branch offices in New York, London, Dubai and a half dozen other centers. And that was 35 years ago, before Hong Kong’s meteoric expansion!

Why? Because of one single, powerful force that has propelled Hong Kong’s growth:

Freedom.

Freedom to trade, freedom from taxes, freedom from regulations, and above all, freedom from political interference or manipulation.

The authorities in Beijing seem to understand this — so much so that they’ve pursued something similar for Shanghai and other Chinese cities (within strict limits, of course).

What they don’t yet seem to understand is this: Economic and financial freedom cannot forever co-exist with political and social repression.

The Rise and Fall of

“Peaceful Co-Existence”

This is also an extremely important issue. So let me give you a quick overview.



Read more...

Banner

Asset protection

Yield-Hungry Baby Boomers Are on a Death March

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Dennis Miller - Millermoney.com

on Thursday, 09 October 2014 14:36

Today’s forecast: yield-starved investors forced into the market by seemingly permanent low interest rates will continue to be collateral damage. For some, that collateral damage may involve more than the loss of income opportunities… many could be wiped out completely.

I asked the participants in a discussion group: “If there were safe, fixed-income opportunities available paying 5-7%, would you move a major portion of your portfolio out of the market?”

They all answered a resounding, “Absolutely.”

Participants relying on their nest eggs for retirement income said they felt forced into the market for yield. Their retirement projections weren’t based on 2% yields, the rough rate now available on fixed-income investments. They’d planned on 6% or so. What other choice do they have now?

The Federal Reserve knows seniors and savers are collateral damage. Former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has openly acknowledged that the Fed’s low-interest-rate policy is designed to prompt savers to take more chances with riskier investments. In their book Code Red, authors John Mauldin and Jonathan Tepper shine a harsh light on that policy, writing:

Central banks want people to take their money out of safe investments and put them into risky investments. They call it the “portfolio balance channel,” but you could call it “starve people for yield and they’ll buy anything.”

I have to agree with Mauldin and Tepper.

The collateral damage inflicted upon seniors and savers is twofold. First, it’s the loss of safe income opportunities. The Fed’s low-interest-rate policies have saved banks and the government an estimated $2 trillion in interest alone. $2 trillion added to the balances of 401(k) and IRA accounts would sure bolster a lot of desperate retirement plans.

But there’s no sign the Fed will reverse its low-interest-rate policies in the foreseeable future. So, yield-starved investors, including throngs of baby boomers maturing into retirement age each day, play the market and risk their nest eggs in the process.

The Federal Reserve has succeeded in forcing savers to take billions of dollars out of fixed-income investments to hunt for better yields. Take a look at the chart below showing the S&P 500’s performance since 2004. The Index has almost tripled since its 2009 bottom. There hasn’t been a major correction in well over 1,000 days.

Screen Shot 2014-10-09 at 2.16.56 PM

When the bubble burst in 2007, the S&P took a 57% drop. I had friends just entering retirement who suffered



Read more...

Banner

Asset protection

US Stock Mkt Now Very Close to Another Historic Crash

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Arabian Money

on Wednesday, 08 October 2014 07:14

7011p-stockten-days-that-shook-the-nation-stock-market-crash-of-1929-posters-243x175US stock markets tumbled again yesterday as the recent sell off gathers speed. Traders note that the markets are now very close to their 200-day moving averages and when those are passed there is every possibility of a major crash for the most overvalued equities in the world whose internal support has been hollowed out over the past year.

After the falls on Tuesday the Dow is under 200 points away from the 200-day moving average trigger line, and the Nasdaq is even closer to this tripwire with 90 points to go. Automated selling could turn into a market panic to get out at this point.

Exhausted rally

The long rally is exhausted. The QE3 money machine is coming to an end. Where are the buyers going to come from now? Besides the small caps have been selling down for ages. This is a hollow shell of a market just waiting for the big guys to join the rout.



Read more...

Banner

Asset protection

Why All Hell Is Breaking Loose & Fear Is Taking Hold

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Egon von Greyerz via King World News

on Saturday, 04 October 2014 08:09

shapeimage 22Today a 42-year market veteran & founder of Matterhorn Asset Management out of Switzerland speaks about the gold market & why all hell is breaking loose in the global markets and fear is taking hold. 

Greyerz:  “Eric, we’ve had a long period now when all news is good news for stocks, and that’s typical for a bull market.  But we are now very close to a period when all news will instead be bad news for global stock markets.  For instance, the mainstream media is telling people that stocks are falling because of the end of QE and the Ebola crisis....

“Previously, this type of bad news was simply ignored.  But as I said, everything that comes out now will begin to add to the selloff in global stock markets.

People being interviewed on KWN have discussed Ebola and how it will have a major impact on the world economy.  In Liberia productivity is down between 50 - 75 percent and inflation is surging and food prices are going up.  We could see this happening to a lot of countries in the world if the Ebola virus really starts to spread.

In Argentina we just had the head of the central bank resign because he was not printing enough money.  Argentina has a history of currency disasters.  The peso is crashing.  It’s down 75 percent since 2012 and the inflation rate is now 40 percent.  I mention what is happening in Argentina because I believe this is going to happen to a lot of countries once the global money printing starts in earnest.

Countries will eventually get to a point where they can’t borrow enough money.  This will even happen to the United States.  And the eurozone is in decline.  Production is down, lending is down, and GDP is down.  The latest German PMI figures were down for the first time in 15 months.  France is continuing to decline.  And in Greece 60 percent of the people live in poverty or on the verge of poverty. 

In the U.S. the PMI figures were also down.  This is at a time when the United States is officially ending QE.  The end of QE won’t last because as the stock market decline becomes too painful and European banks come under increasing pressure, there will be a new stimulus program announced.

The U.S. government is now borrowing a staggering $8 trillion each year.  $8 trillion of new Treasuries are issued every year.  That represents half of the debt that is renewed annually.  This means the U.S. is conducting a policy which is very unsound by borrowing short-term to take advantage of the extremely low or virtually zero interest rates.  If interest rates go to 5 - 10 percent, which I believe they will, it will be disastrous for the U.S. government because there is no way they could service their debt.  This would mean the U.S. would technically default due to the collapsing dollar.  This will also mean the dollar will be displaced as the world’s reserve currency.

Coming to gold, I’ve included two charts.  One illustrates the price of gold vs the dollar.  If you look at the chart since 1999, gold is up almost 400 percent (see chart below).

.....read more of what Egon von Greyerz had to say in this extraordinary interview (with much larger charts) HERE

KWN Greyerz 10-2-2014

.....read more of what Egon von Greyerz had to say and view much larger charts) HERE



Banner

<< Start < Prev 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Next > End >> Page 94 of 97

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Our Premium Service:
The Inside Edge on Making Money

Latest Update

Trading Basics – Sizing Your Stock Positions

You’ve done your analysis and are ready to take the trade. Next question is how much do you buy? The tendency is to buy what you can afford...

- posted by Tyler Bollhorn

Michael Campbell
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Patrick Ceresna
Josef Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine