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Asset protection

Still My Favorite Position In This Speculative Casino

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Posted by NFTRH

on Wednesday, 13 December 2017 08:52

While participating in the asset orgy with all the other casino patrons, I’ve been building up a proportionally large position in cash equivalent SHV; boring old T-Bills. This allows the Fed to work for me as it hikes rates while mitigating/managing risk at the same time. One day scores of reformed substance abusers are going to come flying out of the casino into the likes of this cash equivalent along with gold, which will not be paying dividends like SHV, but will provide a whole other range of risk management services that are more important because they are off the grid (ya ya, I know… Bitcoin).

shv

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Asset protection

Technically Speaking: This Is Nuts

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Wednesday, 06 December 2017 07:11

Since the election, markets have accelerated the pace of the advance, as shown in the chart below.

saupload SP500-Weekly-Price-2016-Present

The advance has had two main story lines to support the bullish narrative.

 

  • It's an earnings recovery story, and;
  • It's all about tax cuts.

 

There is much to debate about the earnings recovery story, but as I showed previously, and to steal a line from my friend Doug Kass, this "new meme increasingly resembles 'Group Stink.'" To wit:

"Despite many who are suggesting this has been a 'rational rise' due to strong earnings growth, that is simply not the case as shown below. (I only use 'reported earnings' which includes all the 'bad stuff.' Any analysis using "operating earnings" is misleading.)"



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Asset protection

Is Cryptocurrency a Government Plot?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:02

bitcoinQUESTION: You have said that the future will be cryptocurrencies. The Bank of Canada has come out and acknowledged what you have been saying that such private issue challenges the government’s profit structure. Do you think electronic money will be viable sooner or later down the road?

PG

ANSWER: Electronic currency is ALREADY the bulk of the money supply. When you deposit $100 in a bank, it lends out $90 from your deposit and your bank statement still reflects you have $100. However, the person who borrowed the money now has $90 in their account. The government did not “print” money to cover that extra $90, rather they just created “electronic” money.

So what is the big thing about cryptocurrencies? The idea is that it is money that will not depreciate and is strangely not “fiat.” Yet, it is no different than the electronic money created by the bank, which is also outside the strict domain of government.

If you just look at the price of Bitcoin, it demonstrates that this is merely a speculative boom indistinguishable from the Dot.COM Bubble, which also reflected a new era in technology. If Bitcoin was truly an alternative currency that was supposed to retain its value, the mere fact that the rice has soared like any stock proves that it is by no means a “store of wealth” that somehow is better than currency in which it must still be converted to use in the bulk of the economy.


If the power grid failed, everyone would be broke. You could not even buy food. Society would revert immediately back to barter. There are risks to any form of electronic money be it a bank or crypto. The government WILL move toward cryptocurrencies THAT THEY WILL CONTROL, not the private sector. I have stated before, they argue electronic money eliminates cash crime from bank robberies, drugs, prostitution, etc., but it introduces more sophisticated hacking computer crimes.

The crime issue is the excuse, but the real issue remains the hunt for taxes. I have to wonder if the government is not behind this entire cryptocurrency phenomenon. Satoshi Nakamoto is the name assigned to this mysterious unknown person or people who designed Bitcoin and created its original reference implementation. Nobody knows who invented this technology. It is entirely possible that this movement is a false flag created by the government to move society to accept the end of tangible money. It is very strange that the person who invented this technology is unknown and has not stepped forward to demand some royalty.

...also from Martin:

Commodity Prices Before 1259



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Asset protection

The Perfect Storm (Of The Coming Market Crisis)

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Tuesday, 28 November 2017 06:13

It is always refreshing to step away from the keyboard for a few days and hit the “reset button,” which is exactly what I did last week. My wife and I took a quick trip to Mexico to get a little sun on our face while we wiggled our toes in the sand.

I came back astonished.

Over my 30-odd years of working with money in various capacities, I learned to “shut-up and listen.” This is particularly the case when you are in an airport lounge or packed like sardines in a missile-shaped tube hurling through the air at 35,000 feet.

People love to talk…if you let them.

I had a dozen “listening sessions” with a wide variety of people who each told me roughly the same thing summarized as follows:

  1. The market is a “can’t lose” proposition.
  2. So is “Bitcoin” (even though they had no idea what it really is when I asked them.)
  3. The market is only going higher from here because the Fed won’t let it go down.

You get the idea.

And just when I thought I was sure I had the most bullish views wrapped up – Kevin Matras fro Zack’s Research hit my inbox with the following:

“The S&P will double. And not just eventually. But over the next 5 years (or sooner). 

Sounds like a Herculean task on the surface, but it’s really not. In fact, the market only needs to gain on average of 14.9% per year in order to do so. That’s not such a stretch given the market has been averaging 14.9% per year since this bull market began in early 2009, even though GDP (prior to this year) has only been increasing at an anemic 1.48% annual rate. 

My 5-year doubling thesis also means that we won’t see another recession until stocks double again, nor will we see another bear market until stocks double again.

So, there you have it.

No bear market until the market racks up another 2600 points and dwarfs every other economic growth cycle in history.

SP500-Cumulative-Bull-Bear-Markets-112617

Meanwhile….Back On Earth

Before I go further, let me clarify one thing.

As a portfolio manager, I am neither bullish nor bearish. I don’t really care which way the market is headed personally. If it is rising, as it is now, I am long equities. When it reverses that trend, I will either be short equities and long bonds and cash.

That’s my job.

My job is also to pay attention to the risks that could quickly remove large chunks of investment capital from my client’s portfolios

The Perfect Storm Cometh

.....continue reading HERE

 

 



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Asset protection

Taxes, Macro Signals, Seasonality, US Stocks and Gold Miners

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Monday, 27 November 2017 07:13

While politicians hammer out the details it is generally accepted that corporations and by extension the investor and asset owner classes are targeted for benefits under the coming Republican tax plan. The logical implication of that beneficial treatment is that barring a market meltdown in the interim, people looking to unload stock positions and take profits would tend to wait until January in hopes of gaining the 2018 tax benefit vs. 2017’s tax code.

Among the under performing sectors subject to tax loss selling in late 2017 I have selected the gold miners for this post because they tend to be counter-cyclical and “in the mirror” to the broad risk ‘on’ asset party currently ongoing. We have noted again and again that with the asset party in full swing the miners’ fundamentals cannot possibly look good, and at face value they don’t. Sector fundamentals like gold/oil and gold/materials ratios are not good and macro fundamentals like gold vs. stock markets, the economy (which is relatively strong) and the yield curve are not at all supportive either… as they currently stand.

In a perfect world stock market-to-gold ratios, long-term interest rates and the yield curve would work together to signal a time of change for the macro. The red shaded areas show a logical limit for stocks vs. gold, the 100 month exponential moving average has limited 30 year yields for decades and the yield curve is on the same message, heading toward but not yet to a logical limit.

3amigos



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