This morning I noted that I did not appreciate seeing Jeremy Grantham’s note dismissed even in the slightest way and without rancor by a Biiwii author. His intro was “Here we go with the “melt-up” meme again.”, which I felt was not appropriate for our purposes, coming as it did from a writer who was cautionary all through 2017.
Look, I was pretty sure I was going to be wrong about a Q4 market top long before Q4 ended. I was led to believe that through subsequent information and analysis, most notably delivered by the 3 Amigos, who will ride bullish until their respective journeys end. At the time of the Q4 cycle forecast however, we noted that a roll over into a significant correction (at least) could actually be healthy for the market’s overall long-term bull. We also noted how a building mania would either precede the bull’s end or make the next correction much worse than had we had a top of some kind in Q4 2017.
Now, I was thinking today how most people under 40 do not even know the details of what caused the great bubble of 1999 to burst in 2000. Back in 2000 they were basically kids or very young adults not yet interested in what we older folks were interested in. I was interested in, for example, why my IRA got cut in half when my financial adviser had declared that the nice folks at MFS and Putnam would never lose money like I would. In 2001 I set about really understanding these financial markets and in 2002 I ripped our funds away from said financial adviser and never looked back.
The crash of 2008? Why, anyone now under 30 was just a kid then as well. Were they out chasing skirts or paying attention to things like credit bubbles and leveraged debt products? I vote skirts for a majority. Today we have an old fogy (Grantham) with lots of experience giving us his viewpoints and I for one found them very interesting, and in line with what I am thinking.