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Tesla's incredibly high valuation illustrates something deeper about the stock market

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Posted by Wolf Richter - Business Insider

on Wednesday, 12 April 2017 17:20

58ee7ae48af57875038b7e4c-473Tesla shares rose to $313.38 this morning, giving the company a market capitalization of about $51 billion, surpassing GM for a moment as the most valuable American automaker. This left some industry insiders wondering about tulip bulbs.

“It’s either one of the great Ponzi schemes of all time, or it’s all going to work out,” mused Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the largest dealer group in the US. He was speaking at a conference hosted by the National Automobile Dealers Association and J.D. Power. “It’s totally inexplicable, as far as its valuation,” he said.

But he was wrong. It’s not “inexplicable” at all. It’s very explicable.

....continue reading HERE

...also from Wolf:

Bullish Case for Europe is a Classic Soros-Style False Trend



Asset protection

Stock Market Valuations and Hamburgers

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Posted by John Mauldin - Thoughts From The Frontline

on Monday, 10 April 2017 07:29


To refer to a personal taste of mine, I’m going to buy hamburgers the rest of my life. When hamburgers go down in price, we sing the ‘Hallelujah Chorus’ in the Buffett household. When hamburgers go up in price, we weep. For most people, it’s the same with everything in life they will be buying -- – except stocks. When stocks go down and you can get more for your money, people don’t like them anymore.

– Warren Buffett, Fortune magazine: “The Wit and Wisdom of Warren Buffett”

A few weeks ago I spent two days giving multiple speeches alongside my friend Steve Blumenthal of CMG in a very cold New Jersey on the heels of a rather strong blizzard that had left the countryside white and beautiful. I listened to Steve do deep dives on stock market valuations. He started each of his presentations with Warren Buffett’s hamburger story, quoted above, before jumping into multiple charts. After a while, we began to go back and forth during his presentations, as I had my own insights on market valuations, generally in sync with his.

I asked him if he would be willing to do a joint letter on valuations from time to time (as he puts a great deal of research into the topic), and he agreed. This will be the first of our occasional joint letters (assuming we get a good response), with Steve doing the first draft and then me jumping in with comments and charts from my own sources. I want to thank the Ned Davis Research team for allowing us to use a few of their charts and data. (I should note that Steve will be at my conference, for those attendees who would like to talk with him further on this topic.) So let’s jump right in.

Stock Market Valuations and Hamburgers



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Asset protection

Soaring Global Debt Sets Stage For 'Unprecedented Private Deleveraging'

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Thursday, 06 April 2017 19:21

The UK's Telegraph just published an analysis of global debt that pretty much sums up the coming crisis. Here's an excerpt with a couple of the more hair-raising charts:

Global debt explodes at 'eye-watering' pace to hit £170 trillion

Global debt has climbed at an "eye-watering" pace over the past decade, soaring to a fresh high of £170 trillion last year, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF).

The IIF said total debt levels, including household, government and corporate debt, climbed by more than $70 trillion over the last 10 years to a record high of $215 trillion (£173 trillion) in 2016 - or the equivalent of 325pc of global gross domestic product (GDP).

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It said emerging markets posed "a growing source of concern" to financial stability and the global economy as debt burdens in these countries climb at a rapid pace.

Growing vulnerabilities



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Asset protection

Debt Endgame & Gold Bull Era

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 04 April 2017 08:06

Apr 4, 2017

  1. The spectacular price action of gold within what I’ve dubbed the “Uptrend of Champions” continues to be impressive. I’ve suggested that the rally is poised to accelerate, and that’s clearly in play.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
  3. Gold is poised to surge through the minor $1270 area highs and race to my $1315 target.
  4. All lights are green for gold, and for silver the lights are even greener. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
  5. I think the caption on that chart says all that any silver investor needs to know right now. There’s a beautiful symmetrical triangle pattern in play. While the bears are probably sleeping this morning, silver is attempting an upside breakout!


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Asset protection

The Flash Crash Cycle is Coming

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Posted by Ian Thijm

on Friday, 31 March 2017 07:27

The May 6 2010 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I first discovered a 360 Trading Day (TD, Gann’s 360 degrees) cycle and posted it on my public blog, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash Crash (FC) cycle of Lows. 

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows.At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.

The dominant Flash Crash 360 TD / 75 week Cycle:

(Click on image to enlarge)

aaa

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks

04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks

04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks

04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks

04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks

04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks

04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks

04/14/00L – June 2017 = 12 X 360.00 TD

04/14/00L –  July 2017 = 12 X 75 weeks

(Click on image to enlarge)



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