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We Are Going to Global War - Gregory Mannarino

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Posted by Gregory Mannarino

on Monday, 29 September 2014 04:24

 "If war breaks out, then what you play is gold" - Jim Rogers

What happens when the global money printing stops working? Gregory Mannarino of TradersChoice.net says, “War, we are going to global war. This is the next step here. It is the natural progression of where they are taking us now. This new war we have in Syria, and Iraq is going to get much, much worse here.” 

 

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Asset protection

Low Oil Prices & Full Blown Global Collapse

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Wednesday, 24 September 2014 07:40

Could Low Oil Prices Point To A Debt Bubble Collapse?

Oil and other commodity prices have recently been dropping. Is this good news, or bad?

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Figure 1. Trend in Commodity Prices since January 2011. Brent spot oil price from EIA; Australian Coal from World Bank Prink Sheet; Food from UN’s FAO.

I would argue that falling commodity prices are bad news. It likely means that the debt bubble which has been holding up the world economy for a very long–since World War II, at least–is failing to expand sufficiently. If the debt bubble collapses, we will be in huge difficulty.

Many people have the impression that falling oil prices mean that the cost of production is falling, and thus that the feared “peak oil” is far in the distance. This is not the correct interpretation, especially when many types of commodities are decreasing in price at the same time. When prices are set in a world market, the big issue is affordability. Even if food, oil and coal are close to necessities, consumers can’t pay more than they can afford.

A person can tell from Figure 1 that since the first part of 2011, the prices of Brent oil, Australian coal, and food have been trending downward. This drop in prices continues into September. For example, as I write this, Brent oil price is $97.70, while the average price for the latest month shown (August) is $105.27. It is this steeper, recent drop, which many are concerned about.

We are dealing with several confusing issues. Let me try to explain some of them.

Issue #1: Over the short term, commodity prices don’t reflect the cost of extraction; they reflect what buyers can afford.....continue reading this thorough analysis with 8 more fascinating charts HERE

 



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Asset protection

The Greatest Trade Ever & The Stage Is Set For The Next Fed-Created Crisis

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Posted by Forbes Magazine

on Tuesday, 23 September 2014 07:07

670px-us-federalreserveboard-seal-svgMost are familiar by now with the amazing story of investor John Paulson. Having predicted trouble in the mortgage market ahead of 2008, Paulson positioned one of his hedge funds to profit from a decline in the value of mortgages. The trade was so lucrative that the Wall Street Journal’s Gregory Zuckerman wrote a very worthwhile book about his prescience, The Greatest Trade Ever.

....continue reading "Stanley Fischer's 'Systemic Risk' Hubris Sets The Stage For The Next Fed-Created Crisis



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Asset protection

A Rational Look At Stock Market Risk

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Posted by Chris Ciovacco - Ciovacco Capital Management

on Monday, 22 September 2014 13:03

No Fear Mongering, Just Facts

Group of 20 finance chiefs and central bankers said current risks include uneven growth and the possibility of excessive risk-taking in a low interest rate environment. They also pointed out that when push comes to shove, they will continue to stimulate. From Bloomberg:

"It is critical that we take concrete steps to boost growth and create jobs," Australian Treasurer Joe Hockey, who hosted the meeting, told reporters after the communique was released. "We will use all levers available, including additional fiscal and monetary policy leverage where appropriate."


This Is What Risk-Off Looks Like

If an increasing threat of a global recession is the primary concern, we would expect more conservative assets to be gaining traction. Investor preferences allow us to better understand the stock market's risk-reward profile. For example, when economic fear was high in 2008, the performance of growth-oriented stocks (SPY) was weak relative to defensive-oriented bonds (AGG) (see chart below).

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This is What Risk-On Looks Like



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Asset protection

This Great Danger May Trigger A Worldwide Crash

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Posted by John Mauldin via King World News

on Monday, 15 September 2014 07:29

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Today John Mauldin spoke with King World News about the great danger he believes may trigger a worldwide crash.  Mauldin, President of Millennium Wave Securities, also warned that the problems in Europe are so enormous that it may ultimately shock the Europeans by causing the destruction of their currency.

....continue reading HERE

Ed Note: John Mauldin has a much longer article in his "Thoughts From The Frontline" posted below:

Thoughts from the Frontline - What's on Your Radar Screen?

What’s on Your Radar Screen?
Emerging Markets Are Set Up for a Crisis
Who’s Competing with Whom?
O Canada, Where Are You Headed?
Thinking about Momentum
The Rational Bear



Read more...

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