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Bob Hoye: Pivotal Events

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Friday, 09 February 2018 06:06

The following is part of Pivotal Events that was published for our subscribers February 1, 2018.

Perspective

"Rational Exuberance".

We started using the phrase in December 2016, because of the new Pro-Business Administration. On the big technical surges, we dropped the "Rational".

The DJIA zoom has reached a Weekly RSI of 92. As noted last week, the highest reached for the Nasdaq in the Dot-Com mania was 84.

Also, the Fibonacci has reached a possible target, built upon the major swings since the panic ended in March 2009.

Clearly, "Irrational Exuberance".

The NYXBT (NYSE Bitcoin Index) soared to 18732 in mid-December and the break is turning into a major hit. The index is at 9345 and the 20-Week ema is at 10125, which is a serious take out of support. Individual examples such as RIOT have been smashed.

The take away is that the sector accomplished a climax within our December-January window. This correction could lead to the Bitcoin bubble entering a long contraction. This would be the speculative part, as with RCA in the early 1930s, or Western Union Telegraph following the 1873 Bubble, the technology continued to advance while stock prices went down. Bitcoin and Blockchain technology will continue its phenomenal progress.

The ChartWorks reviewed the Qualcomm blow-off at the turn-of-the-year in the 2000 peak, and is updating it.

Retail Trade Is Back!

45035

  • Back in the late 1960s, we used to use the ratio between trading volume on the American Stock Exchange and the NYSE.
  • This kept track of the amount of trading on a speculative trading floor.
  • The ratio would soar to a peak in the overall stock markets.
  • Today's equivalent is soaring now.

Scandals and The Stock Market



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“I Expect Tomorrow Could Be Just As Bad If Not Worse Than Today Was”

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Posted by Bill Fleckenstein - King World News

on Tuesday, 06 February 2018 06:45

King-World-News-A-Devastating-Endgame-And-How-22They-All-Sold-At-The-Absolute-Bottom22-864x400 cBefore turning to the action I would like to put where we are in the “everything” bubble into perspective, as I had an insight this weekend, which everyone else may already have thought of, but it was new to me so I thought I would share it…

The Weakest Links…
When the stock bubble burst in March 2000, it was the most speculative elements with the highest imagination potential — i.e., the dot-com stocks — that signaled the end of the mania when they broke. Similarly, in the real estate bubble,

....continue reading HERE

 

...also from King World:

James Turk – Phase 2 Will Pave The Way For $11,000 Gold

 

 



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What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Tuesday, 30 January 2018 06:45

Bear-Possibly-Go-Wrong

What goes up, eventually comes down.

That is just reality.

The bull market that began in 2009, has now entered the final stage of “capitulation” as investors throw caution to the wind and charge headlong into the markets with reckless regard for the consequences.

Of course, it isn’t surprising given the massive amounts of liquidity continually injected into the financial markets and global Central Banks have now figured out that continually rising financial markets solve much of the world’s ills. Simply, with enough liquidity, you can cover up bad (credit risks) by guaranteeing holders they will never default.

It’s genius.  It’s a “no lose” investment scheme.

Unfortunately, we have seen this repeatedly in the past.

In the 1980’s it was “Portfolio Insurance” – a “no lose” investment program that eventually erupted into the crash of 1987. But not before the market went into a parabolic advance first.



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Is Everyone Now Bullish in Stocks?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 29 January 2018 09:00

businessman ride bull 300 clr 18785At last, we have entered the middle-ground of analytical thought. Between 2009 and 2017, the majority were bearish calling for the inevitable crash any day now. So after 8,6 years, they have now crossed the Rubicon and we now see there is a general expectation that stocks will keep rising, albeit at a slower pace. The reasons they now have adopted a focus on the Trump Tax Cuts and the odds seem low for a recession this year. They are also touting that economies around the world are finally in sync and starting to grow together, yet that seems to be delusional at best.

Then we have the typical fundamental arguing that with profits on the upswing for companies, stock prices tend to follow the direction of profits. That too is a myth for even Shiller has admitted that since 1881, the correlation of the past decade’s real earnings growth with the price-earnings ratio is a positive 0.32. But there is zero correlation between his CAPE ratio and the next 10 years’ real earnings growth.

....continue reading HERE

 

....also from Martin:

It’s The Impeachment That Would Tank the Market



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Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical

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Posted by Yardeni Research

on Monday, 22 January 2018 06:38

Table of Contents

Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2

Global Growth Barometer 3

Economic Surprise Index 4

Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5

Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7

Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8

AAII Sentiment 9

Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10

S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11

Volatility 12

Volume 13

Dow Theory 14

S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18

S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P  19

Screen Shot 2018-01-22 at 6.44.35 AM

Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.
Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

.....continue HERE for more & larger charts



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