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When the Snowball Reverses

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Posted by Doug Wakefield - Best Minds

on Friday, 06 October 2017 06:46

Screen Shot 2017-10-06 at 6.38.32 AM
“I wrote a series of articles on the Fed versus History. If you thought the Fed could keep us out of recession, you would be a bull. If you thought History would prevail, you should stay out of the market. I bet on History. Time has shown that History won that fight. History is a tough opponent. Betting against History is usually a losing proposition.”  

September 2008 seems so long ago now. The experiment of global QE has proven from the last 9 years that the $700 billion bailout in 2008 did not end the crisis, but kicked off a world that became addicted to ongoing bailouts....

....continue reading HERE 

....also:

If You Want To Know How Crazy Things Really Are Right Now, Take A Look At This… (hint, take a look at the chart below! - Ed)

KWN-Boockvar-I-1042017

 

 



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Asset protection

Marc Faber Warns of Another Market Crash

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Report

on Wednesday, 04 October 2017 06:22

stock-market-crash-1987Sudden Event Would Be More than Enough to Spark Financial Crisis, Warns Faber

Many have expected a financial crisis in 2017. Some may have even hoped for one, thinking it would cause a big dent in President Donald Trump’s popularity. In August and September, as if taking a sigh of relief, investors pushed the pedal to the metal. For much of 2017, the markets have performed as if nobody even wonders, “Will there be another financial crisis?”

Ten years after the subprime crisis, the ever-crazier world of stock markets is on the verge of a new financial bubble. As it happens, it’s no time to consign stock market crash predictions to the closet of obsolescence.


Also Read“Economic Crash 2017” and How Next Financial Crisis Could Be Worse than 2008



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Asset protection

Are the US Markets setting up for an Early October Surprise?

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Posted by Chris Vermeulen - Active TradinPartners.comers.com

on Monday, 02 October 2017 09:21

As investors, we have to determine the amount of risk compared to the amount of potential gain in any trade.  Our job is to measure this relationship properly and to attempt to find opportunities in taking risks for an adequate amount of gain.  Often, this business is difficult to manage expectations and presumed risk factors for traders.  We’ve been trading, combined, for over 40+ years and have learned that the markets don’t always do what we expect them to do.  A perfect example is our most recent VIX Spike call for Sept 9th ~ 12th.  Even though our analysis was valid and accurate, we did not see the VIX spike levels we had projected to happen – such is life in the markets.  We strive every week to deliver superior analysis, trading triggers/alerts and daily markets updates to our clients.  Right or wrong, we live by our abilities to call successful trading triggers and provide timely and accurate market research.

Right now, a number of US major markets are setting up with divergence between price and common technical indicators.  Because many investors fail to even review or focus on longer term charts, very few may be aware of these setups.  Given the size and strength of the recent moves, we are not making predictions regarding the downside price potential (although it could be substantial).  We are simply pointing out that these divergence patterns are setting up in a number of US major markets and we believe this is a significant correlation pattern of a future event.

This Daily NASDAQ chart provides one of the clearest examples of the divergence patterns.  Price has continually tightened within an upward sloping trend channel and has recently formed a bear flag formation.  MACD has related multiple divergence tops over the past 3+ months and RSI has hovered just above 45 throughout this trend to support the upward move.  As washout high reversal early this week would be a perfect setup for a divergent reversal. A prices spike a bit higher early this week followed by a deep market correction.

Chart 17-09-28 13-29-24

This second chart of the ES provides even further evidence of the setup.  This chart is a Weekly ES (S&P) chart that shows the divergent price action going all the way back to February/March of 2017.  The cyan blue trend channel (support level) is clearly our potential downside target and the RSI is continuing to hover above 58 as this trend continues.  Could the extended divergence be warning of a potentially massive correction?  If so, the RSI would quickly fall to below 50 and price would attempt to retest the support channel (-200 pts from current levels).



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Asset protection

Listening to the Permabears Is a Great Way to Go Broke

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Posted by Lee Adler - Money Morning

on Wednesday, 27 September 2017 06:43

The other day, I had an interesting question thrown my way: What's the single most dangerous investing trend you're seeing out there right now? What could people be doing that's a surefire way to just go flat broke?

My answer is probably not what you would expect – after all, today and every day, I'm "Opposite Guy."

So I'm going to give you the answer you didn't expect. But it's the right answer historically.

It'll help you along your path to becoming a successful, independent, self-directed, and, above all, wealthy investor.

And the best part is, the answer is going to save you a ton of money and heartbreak…

Conventional Wisdom Only Gets You So Far

Here's something else you probably weren't expecting from Opposite Guy: You can always follow the conventional wisdom… if you want.

That, however, will only help you in a bull market, when the conventional wisdom is usually right and can stay right for a long time.

Bull markets are when cable talking heads can set themselves up as mystical profit prophets just by hawking the FANG stocks – Facebook Inc. (Nasdaq: FB), Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN), Netflix Inc. (Nasdaq: NFLX) and Google/Alphabet Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) – to the credulous masses.

bear-dartSee? Bull markets are easy.

But bear markets do come along every so often, and when they do, the conventional wisdom that's made you bull market gains will lose you a lot of money – fast.

Here's where I'd bet you were expecting me, Opposite Guy, to say that buying the FANGs is the most dangerous trend.

After all, that's what all the bears have been saying – and I have a bit of an undeserved reputation as a permabear. I'm supposed to agree that buying the FANGs at these extreme valuations is insane and a surefire way to go broke.

Trouble is, I'm not a permabear. I'm a trend identifier. I use liquidity and technical analysis to signal, identify, and confirm trends, as well as indicate likely turning points. That's why my analysis has, in fact, been mostly bullish for years. You can follow my liquidity work over at Sure Money and my technical work in the Wall Street Examiner Pro Trader.

Lately, I have been warning that the forces of liquidity that establish market context and drive trends will soon turn bearish, and this week, they started to. My short-term LAMPP indicator, which you can follow at Sure Money, turned red this week.

If you’re not making gains like this… you could be cheating yourself out of tens of thousands of dollars.

That's a big distinction – and an expensive one if you've been following constant doomsayers.



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Asset protection

U.S. Retirement Market Ponzi Fueled By Record Concentration In Stocks By Young Americans

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Monday, 25 September 2017 07:06

For the U.S. Retirement Market Ponzi Scheme to continue, there must be a new group of suckers to pay for the individuals who are receiving benefits.  Without a new flow of funds, the Ponzi Scheme comes crashing down.  Such was the case for the individuals who invested in the $65 billion Bernie Madoff Ponzi Scheme that came crashing down in 2008.

Interestingly, the U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) that investigated Madoff Securities in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, and 2006, found no evidence of fraud or the need for legal action by the commission.  The failure of the SEC to find any wrong-doing by Bernie Madoff should provide Americans with plenty of reassurance and confidence that their 401k’s are the highest quality sound investments in the market.

Regardless, the concentration in equities by young Americans reached a record high since the 2008 financial crisis.  According to the most recent data put out by the Investment Company Insititute (ICI), Americans in their twenties who participated in 401k plans, 75% of the group invested more than 80% of their funds into equities in 2015 versus 48% of the group in 2007:

Exposure-To-Equities-Among-401K-Participants-20-30s-NEW

In just eight years, Americans in the 20’s age group invested in 401k’s, increased their equity exposure (80+%) from less than a half to three-quarters.  Furthermore, those in the 30’s age group increased their equity concentration from 55% to 70% in the same period.

All this means is that younger Americans participating in the 401k Retirement Market have considerably increased their exposure to stocks while net benefits paid out have now gone into the red.  I wrote about this in my article, Something Big, Bad and Ugly Is Taking Place In The U.S. Retirement Market:



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