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European Banks – The Next Crisis – The Unseen Cause in Plain View

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 23 August 2017 07:37

Frankfurt-Cloudy

The clouds have not lifted from the heart of the financial center within the European Union on the continent. The origin of the next crisis is unseen yet in plain view if you care to look. Ten years since the financial crisis of 2007-2009, the core fundamental problems in the banking sector have not yet been resolved and still fester beneath the surface. Indeed, following the collapse of the investment bank Lehman Brothers, a financial tidal wave swept the world. The collapse of the mortgage backed securities market in the States, set off a contagion where the crisis spread at a rapid pace around the world. European banks tried to compete with New York adopting similar carefree lending. In the end, the Draconian measures from Brussels and constantly adding regulation to all levels of business mixed with tax increases, prevented the economy itself from truly recovering only further preventing a bank recovery.



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Asset protection

Is The Stock Market Setting Itself Up For A Spectacular Crash?

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Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Tuesday, 22 August 2017 06:53

Neither a man nor a crowd nor a nation can be trusted to act humanely or to think sanely under the influence of a great fear.” Bertrand Russell, Unpopular Essays

The stock market crash story is getting boring and annoying to a large degree. Since 2009, there has been a constant drumbeat of the market is going to crash stories. In 2009, many experts felt that the market had rallied too strongly and that it needed to pull back strongly before moving higher up. They were calling for 15%-20% correction. Ten years later and most of them are still waiting for this so-called strong correction or crash. A stock market crash is a possibility but the possibility is not the same thing as certainty, and this is what seems to elude most of the naysayers. One day they will get it right as even a broken clock is correct twice a day. In the interim waiting for this stock market crash has cost these experts a fortune, both in lost capital gains and actual booked losses if they shorted this market.

It’s 2017, and the markets are overbought, and we agree that they need to let out some steam, but as for a crash that will only occur when sentiment turns bullish. The crowd has not embraced this market and until they do corrections but not crashes is what we should expect. In fact, we penned an article titled “Dow Could Trade to 30K But not before This Happens”, where we discussed the possibility of the Dow trading to 30k before it crashes. The one factor that could alter this outlook would be for the masses to turn bullish suddenly.

This market will experience a spectacular crash one day; nothing can trend upwards forever and eventually the market has to revert to the mean. Markets never crash on a sour note; the crowd is chanting in joy when the markets suddenly change direction. A simple look at previous bubbles will prove this; the housing bubble, for example, did not end on a note of fear; the crowd was ecstatic. Even the Tulip bubble that lasted from 1634-1637 ended on a note of extreme joy.

Jim Rogers states that the next crash will be the worst one we have seen in our lifetimes.

We’ve had financial problems in America — let’s use America — every four to seven years, since the beginning of the republic. Well, it’s been over eight since the last one. This is the longest or second-longest in recorded history, so it’s coming. And the next time it comes — you know, in 2008, we had a problem because of debt. Henry, the debt now, that debt is nothing compared to what’s happening now.

In 2008, the Chinese had a lot of money saved for a rainy day. It started raining. They started spending the money. Now even the Chinese have debt, and the debt is much higher. The federal reserves, the central bank in America, the balance sheet is up over five times since 2008. It’s going to be the worst in your lifetime — my lifetime too. Be worried Business Insider 

In a broad manner of speaking, he is right, but the proverbial question as always is “when”; so far the naysayers have missed the mark by 1000 miles. This entire rally has been based on the fact that the Fed artificially propped the markets by keeping rates low for an insanely long period and infusing billions of dollars into the markets. One day the pied piper is going to collect but as we have stated over and over again over the years, that until the masses embrace this market, a crash is unlikely. A strong correction is, however, a certainty; it’s just a matter of time.

The market has defied every call, and even some of the most ardent of bulls are now nervous; we stated this would occur over two years ago. The Market has put in over 36 new highs this year and is living up to the new name we gave it late in 2016. Up to that point, we referred to this market as the most hated bull market of all time; after that, we started to refer to this market as the most Insane Stock Market Bull of all time. Insanity by definition has no pattern so expect this market to do things no other market has ever done before.

A strong correction is a certainty; the million dollar question is when 

We are using the word correction and not crash for until we start seeing non-stop headlines for Dow 35K, and the overall sentiment turns bullish, the markets are unlikely to crash. Sentiment analysis reveals that the crowd is still either uncertain or bearish when it comes to the stock market.

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Anxiety Index


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Asset protection

Silver Cycles and War Cycles

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 18 August 2017 06:54

Why Silver Cycles and War Cycles?

Because silver prices and wars are connected, and because cycles have predictive value when viewed over the long term. Look at silver prices since the year 1900. Yes, silver has not freely traded for a long time, but there is value in the study.

J-Silver-800x629

Six important silver lows have been identified with green ovals. Two other lows in 1931 and 1971 are ignored. The six lows identified approximately match these wars:

Low Date War

1 1914 World War I

2 1939 World War II

3 1963 Vietnam War

4 1990 Gulf War

5 2001 War on Terror



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Asset protection

Legendary Short Seller Covers Gold & Silver And What Will Usher In The Next Collapse

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Posted by King World News

on Wednesday, 16 August 2017 07:56

King-World-News-Look-At-This-Shocking-Undervaluation-In-The-Gold-Silver-Markets-864x400 cThe futures were higher overnight, although I couldn’t tell you why, but it didn’t take long for those gains to be erased and the market was slightly weaker in the early going. This morning I took the opportunity afforded by the bounce over the last couple of days to reload some of the puts that I sold Friday morning. I only bring that up to emphasize the point that, for the first time in ages, I have begun trading around on the short side, however minutely.

...continue reading HERE

 

....also from King World News:

Greyerz – The Greatest Crisis In World History Is About To Be Unleashed



Asset protection

The Curse of Years Ending in Seven

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Posted by David Chapman - The Chapman Report

on Monday, 14 August 2017 07:08

Ok, maybe it is not fair to call years ending in seven a curse. But years ending in seven have had a checkered record. Since 1830, the Dow Jones Industrials (DJI) has recorded nine up years and nine down years ending in seven. Years ending in seven have the second worst year record for the DJI. The leader or, in this case, the biggest loser is years ending in three. Its record is nine up years and ten down years. As to the biggest winner, well, that honour goes to years ending in five with a record of sixteen up years vs. three down years. 

Years ending in seven are the leader in one category. They have the most losses totalling 20% or more. The total is four. 1857 saw the DJI lose 31%, in 1907 the DJI was down 37.7%, in 1917 the DJI dropped 21.7%, and finally in 1937 the DJI fell 32.8%. Years ending in seven have also been, overwhelmingly, associated with stock market panics and crashes. Note the following:

Screen Shot 2017-08-14 at 7.08.31 AM



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The nervousness surounding the current bull market remains significant. While there are a number of unsettling indicators suggesting a serious...

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